Basic probability
The chance or likelihood an event will occur. What is probability? Basic rules of probability The fundamental counting principle From business, to medicine, to weather, nothing in life is certain. In everything we do, we gauge the chances of successful outcomes. Probability provides a quantitative description of the likelihood associated with those outcomes. Probability in the REEL World The following excerpt is from the motion picture "21" where the "Monty Hall" problem is introduced. Watch the clip, then watch the video from Khan Academy for a more detailed explanation. |
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Class assignment - Basic probability
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Venn diagrams & tree diagrams
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Class assignments - Venn diagrams & tree diagrams
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Area models & probability
Probability can be calculated using the area represented by each of the possible outcomes. Area models and probability Area model group activity Comparing tree diagrams to area models |
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Key terms & concepts
2 way tables are used to compare relationships between two categorical variables. Binomial probability Combinations and permutations |
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Class assignment - Permutations & combinations
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Empirical/Experimental Probability
The ratio of the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials or times the activity is performed. Interactive probability applet Expected Value What is expected value? |
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Experimental vs theoretical probability
Geometric probability is a method to handle problem of outcomes by measuring the number of outcomes geometrically in terms of length, area, or volume. Independent and dependent events Mutually Exclusive Events Subjective probability is where you use your opinion to find probabilities. Theoretical Probability With theoretical probability, you don’t actually conduct an experiment (i.e. roll a die or conduct a survey). Instead, you use your knowledge about a situation, some logical reasoning, and/or known formula to calculate the probability of an event happening. It can be written as the ratio of the number of favorable events divided by the number of possible events. |
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Additional applications of statistics in the real world include the advanced use of SABRmetrics. A term coined by Bill James in 1980, SABRmetrics is used as a statistical analysis to question traditional measures of baseball evaluation. This concept was portrayed in the motion picture "Moneyball".
moneyball_video_notes_with_answers.pdf | |
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